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Notes
Written by hand first. Each note carries the notebook page it came from and my position on the day it was published, and each is titled by a line from that page.
Positions
Held on the day each note was published-
PEP2026-10-05Exit thesis“GLP-1 is not affecting the stock; its fundamentals are.”Not a cash cow, not a compounder: after the Q3 results, I’m exiting within one quarter.
- Position that day
- Held, exiting
- Tests
- 3 exit testsregistered 2026-10-08first reading: Q4 2026 results, if the exit isn’t complete
-
BKNG2026-09-21Working notes“The Genius program is brilliant: Booking has the hosts funding its loyalty program.”Careful with the long-term ambition: the 15% EPS growth is a buyback promise, not an operating promise.
- Position that day
- Held
- Tests
- 3 thesis testsregistered 2026-10-20first reading: Q3 2026 results
-
UBER2026-09-10Thesis notes“Human-driven operations are not going away: Uber is the best-positioned company for the hybrid model.”Peak absorption is the key thesis. A hybrid network buys human supply only at peaks, and an AV fleet cannot replicate that labor pool.
- Position that day
- Held
- Tests
- 4 thesis testsregistered 2026-10-20first reading: Q3 2026 results
-
ISRG2026-09-02Quarterly notes“When a hospital trades in an Xi for a DV5, the same program slot gives 11% more procedures a quarter.”The Xi-to-DV5 replacement cycle is a growth avenue for five more years, on 85% recurring revenue, with no debt.
- Position that day
- Held
- Tests
- 3 thesis testsregistered 2026-10-20first reading: Q3 2026 results
Watchlist
No position: notes on companies I follow-
EXPE2026-10-17Peer analysis“If growth is no better than BKNG’s, you should pay more for the company with greater margins: BKNG.”No better than Booking once you control for currency: on the watchlist, with no trigger to go long or short.
- Position that day
- No position, on the watchlist
- Tests
- None: no position
Every figure is marked by source: i filing · ii management · iii third party · H my calculation.